The Sun is Starting To Rise

The media is, predictably, focused on maintaining a 2 horse race. They spent the last 3 weeks discussing what Trump needs to do, to get back in the race. So when he modulates his rhetoric, they present it as a miraculous tactical adjustment to his disastrous, polarizing campaign.

Given that, Donald faces a number of structural problems:
• He has no traction with Black, Latino, LGBTQ, Democratic, Educated and Women voters. This is, when totaled, a plurality.
• The number of people who are vulnerable to his new softer rhetoric are not enough to change the tide.
• The States he needs to win are all Deep Blue, or leaning Blue. His popularity is in States that don’t have enough electoral votes to carry him.
• He has no ground game to Get Out The Vote, making his poll numbers unlikely to materialize in November.
• Any shift to the middle, will alienate his radical followers. There are already indications of people leaving his rallies, after he starts talking.
• The Time required for him to change Blue to Red is running out faster than his campaign can gain speed.
• The HRC counterattack is kicking off and will continue relentlessly, through November.
• The Press, WaPo & NY Times for two, see him as a threat to their business and their reputation.

Having said all this, anything is possible. The biggest hurdles that remain for HRC are the Debates and turning out the vote.
It’s not sunny yet, but it’s not completely dark on the horizon either.

About jackdetate

Married, 2 children, retired, enjoying unstructured time: "And then he drank a dew From a convenient grass, And then hopped sidewise to the wall To let a beetle pass." ~ Emily Dickinson
This entry was posted in Socio- economics. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s